Just as in all other professional fields, risk management also has a certain amount of unpredictability. As professionals, we strive to identify, evaluate and prioritize risks to minimize the impacts of unfortunate events or to capitalize on opportunities. A critical part of this is understanding risk triggers, causes and timing. For those preparing to take the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) exam, a clear understanding of these aspects is essential.
Risk Triggers
Risk triggers, also known as risk symptoms or warning signs, are indications that a risk event is about to occur. They can be identified through different methods including work performance information, trend analysis, technical performance measurement, and project performance reviews.
For instance, keep a close eye on your project schedule. If you notice that tasks are continually falling behind schedule, this could be a risk trigger indicating potential project delays in the future. Or perhaps, if a project team member who is crucial to the project is frequently unavailable, this could trigger the risk of missed deadlines or incomplete tasks.
Risk Causes
Risk causes are factors that contribute to the occurrence of a specific risk event. Identifying risk causes can be challenging, but they are essential for formulating effective risk responses.
Take, for instance, a project that requires significant input from a particular team member who has recently been demonstrating inconsistent performance because of health issues. The inconsistent performance is a risk cause. If this cause isn’t addressed or controlled, it could ultimately lead to the risk event of project delays or incomplete work.
Risk Timing
Risk timing refers to understanding when a particular risk might occur in relation to the overall project schedule. It is an essential part of risk planning and helps prioritize risk response strategies.
For instance, if you’ve identified a risk that could impact the late stages of the project, but you’re still in the early phases, you may decide to prioritize other more immediate risks. However, if the risk has the potential to derail the entire project and has a high likelihood of occurring, the timing becomes immediate regardless of what stage you are in.
Being able to assess and document risk triggers, causes, and timing is a critical competency tested in the PMI-RMP exam. Let’s consider a hypothetical example to illustrate this:
Suppose you’re handling a project to implement a new software application in a retail outlet. A risk identified is the potential failure of the software to integrate seamlessly with existing systems resulting in operational disruptions.
- Risk Trigger: The trigger could be repeated bugs reported during the initial testing phase.
- Risk Cause: The cause could be identified as insufficient resources dedicated to the testing phase or lack of expertise in the project team in handling such software integrations.
- Risk Timing: If your project schedule shows testing phase is due within a month, the risk timing will affect immediate upcoming tasks and should be prioritized.
Understanding these concepts and effectively applying them should prepare you well for the PMI-RMP exam as well as for real-world project risk management. Remember – the key is to identify potential issues before they become problems and have a robust plan to mitigate them.
Practice Test
True or False: Risk triggers are the events that initiate the risk response plan?
- Answer: True
Explanation: Risk triggers, also known as risk symptoms or warning signs, are the indication that the risk event is about to occur.
Select the best definition for a risk cause:
- A. An event that might affect the project unfavorably.
- B. An event that initiates the risk response plan.
- C. The factors that contribute to the occurrence of a risk.
- D. The estimated time a risk will occur.
Answer: C. The factors that contribute to the occurrence of a risk.
Explanation: Risk causes are the sources of risk, they are essentially the factors or conditions that could turn into risk events.
True or False: The risk timing refers to the point in time when a risk event might occur?
- Answer: True
Explanation: Risk timing refers to an estimation or prediction of when in the lifecycle of the project the risk will occur.
Which factors should be considered when assessing risk triggers? Choose all that apply:
- A. Likelihood of occurrence
- B. Severity of the impact
- C. The timing of the risk event
- D. The cost of the risk response plan
Answer: A. Likelihood of occurrence, B. Severity of the impact, C. The timing of the risk event
Explanation: These factors play important roles in assessing the potential risk triggers and help in formulating the risk response plan.
True or False: Documenting risk causes is not an essential step in risk management process.
- Answer: False
Explanation: Documenting risk causes enables us to understand and identify risks, assess their potential impacts, and plan for effective mitigation strategies.
In risk management, risk timing assists in:
- A. Initiating risk response plan
- B. Identifying risk events
- C. Prioritizing risks
- D. Understanding risk severity
Answer: C. Prioritizing risks
Explanation: Risk timing provides the estimated period of time when a risk might occur, which helps in prioritizing the risks based on their occurrence.
True or False: A risk trigger could differ from one project to another based on several factors like project type, environment, and context.
- Answer: True
Explanation: Risk triggers are project-specific and dependent on the specifics of the project type, environment, and context.
Which of the following approaches is used for documenting risk triggers, causes, and timing?
- A. Risk Register
- B. Risk Breakdown Structure
- C. Risk Matrix
- D. None of the above
Answer: A. Risk Register
Explanation: The Risk Register is a document used to record and monitor risks, it includes details such as risk triggers, causes, and the estimated timing of risk events.
True or False: It’s okay to not pay attention to risk timing if the severity of the risk is low
- Answer: False
Explanation: Regardless of the severity, understanding the timing of the risk is crucial for effective risk management.
The responsibility of assessing and documenting risk triggers, causes, and timing lies with whom?
- A. Project Manager
- B. Risk Management Professional
- C. Both Project Manager and Risk Management Professional
- D. Team Lead
Answer: C. Both the Project Manager and the Risk Management Professional
Explanation: Risk management is the responsibility of all team members, but particularly the Project Manager and the Risk Management Professional.
Interview Questions
What is a risk trigger in project risk management?
A risk trigger is an event or condition that causes a risk event to occur. It is the warning sign or symptom of an impending risk occurrence.
How might causes of risks be identified in a project?
Causes of risks can be identified through various techniques such as Brainstorming, Delphi technique, Interviewing, Root cause analysis, SWOT Analysis, and Checklist Analysis.
What is the difference between a risk event and a risk cause?
A risk cause is a factor that might contribute to the occurrence of a risk event, whereas a risk event is the uncertainty that surrounds the project objectives and outputs when the risk cause comes into play.
What is risk timing and why is it important in project risk management?
Risk timing refers to when the potential risk is expected to occur or impact project activities. It is essential for planning risk responses and proper allocation of resources.
How might project managers assess risk triggers?
Risk triggers can be assessed by identifying potential trigger points throughout the project lifecycle, and associating those triggers with specific risk events. This allows for early detection and reinforcement of preventive measures.
What are some common tools used to document and analyze risk triggers and causes?
Some commonly used tools are Cause and Effect Diagrams (Fishbone or Ishikawa Diagram), Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS).
Why is documenting risk triggers, causes, and timing important in project risk management?
Documenting these factors helps in better understanding the risk, monitoring them efficiently, and planning suitable mitigation or contingency plans. It also increases awareness among project team members about potential risks.
What role does a Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) play in identifying risk causes?
A Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) acts as a valuable tool to break down the potential risks into categories and helps in identifying the sources and causes of risks in a more organized manner.
Can the occurrence of a risk trigger lead to multiple risk events?
Yes, the occurrence of a risk trigger can lead to multiple risk events. Hence, it is essential to identify all the risks that can be associated with each trigger during risk identification process
In what type of risk categorization, are risk triggers typically considered?
Risk triggers are typically considered in event-based risk categorization like Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) or a Risk Register.
What is a Delphi Technique and how is it used in risk cause identification?
Delphi technique is a structured communication process, primarily used for systematic forecasting. In risk cause identification, anonymously gathered expert judgement is used to predict probable risk causes and their potential impact.
Why might an Ishikawa Diagram be used in risk cause identification?
An Ishikawa Diagram, also known as a fishbone diagram, can be used to systematically identify contributing factors or causes that lead to a specific risk event. This way, it can help identify multiple potential sources of risk.
How can a project manager use Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) in risk trigger assessment?
FMEA is a step-by-step approach used for identifying where things could go wrong in any process. A project manager can use this tool to assess potential risk triggers by analyzing the possibility of failure at each stage of the project.
How can risk timing influence the strategy for risk response?
Risk timing can have a significant impact on the strategy for risk response. If a risk is likely to occur sooner, mitigation strategies may need to be immediate. If a risk is likely to occur later, there could be more time to implement a more effective, but slower solution.
What is the role of a SWOT analysis in risk cause identification?
SWOT analysis can assist in risk cause identification by highlighting internal Strengths and Weaknesses along with external Opportunities and Threats. The internal weaknesses and external threats often lead to potential risk causes.
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